Rarely has America’s economy looked so good.

Unemployment is at a historic low, real wages have finally been increasing, and GDP has grown at a sharp clip in recent years.

But on the heels of a volatile year’s end for the stock market, some have likely begun to wonder whether the good times may soon come to an end.

In fact, a majority (56%) of Americans are worried a recession will happen this year, according to results of a recent Credit Karma survey conducted online by The Harris Poll among over 2,000 U.S. adults. And many (68%) have already started preparing, with some stashing more into savings each month (23%) and others staying put in steady jobs (18%). (Learn more about our methodology.)

Of course, no one can say for sure when the next economic slump will happen. But if you’ve felt some recession fears start to creep in, apparently you’re not alone. Our survey shows just how Americans are feeling in the current economic climate and some of the actions they’re taking in response.

Key survey findings

Just how worried is America about the next recession?

Even though the economy still seems to be in fine fettle, it’s quickly becoming a question of when, not if, a recession will hit. When it happens, it could mean financial hardship for many, which could be especially painful for those still recovering from the Great Recession.

If that concerns you, you’re in good company. According to the survey, a majority of Americans (56%) are either somewhat or very worried about a recession taking place in 2019.

In addition, more than two-thirds of Americans (a full 68%) report already having taken some action to prepare for a potential upcoming recession. Here’s a list of some of the things people are doing:

*Respondents could select more than one answer

It’s hard to know how to best prepare for hard times. But working to improve your credit and minimize your debts today is always a good strategy to help you feel financially stable.

Tips for managing your finances during uncertain times

Establish an emergency fund

A 2018 Federal Reserve report said 40% of Americans couldn’t readily cover a $400 emergency expense. Don’t let this describe your situation. Make a conscious decision to build an emergency fund over the next year — even if you can only contribute a few dollars here and there. Make it a priority to save up as much as you can for unexpected expenses by the end of this year.

Maintain regular payments on your credit cards and other bills

Doing this can help your credit remain healthy. Having healthy credit can be especially important in times of economic hardship because banks and other lenders can choose to tighten their lending standards when the market turns south. The lower your credit scores, the riskier you can appear as a borrower. And the riskier you appear, the harder it can be to get approved for loans and other financial products — especially when lenders tighten their standards.

Work on building your credit and track your progress

Typically, one of the first things lenders will look at to determine your borrower risk is your credit. If you’re worried about your credit, use this time of relative economic stability to build your credit health. Credit Karma offers tips on how to do this and, if you’re a Credit Karma member, you can check your VantageScore3.0 credit scores from TransUnion and Equifax for free any time without hurting your credit. Checking your scores regularly can help you stay on top of your progress and address any potential issues that crop up.

Methodology

This survey was conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of Credit Karma from January 2-2, 2019 among 2,005 U.S. adults ages 18 and older. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no estimate of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. For complete survey methodology, including weighting variables and subgroup sample sizes, please contact pr@creditkarma.com.

High-credit-score districts swung toward Democratic control

Before the 2018 midterm elections, Credit Karma found that swing districts had higher-than-average VantageScore 3.0 credit scores, meaning control of the House of Representatives would be largely contested in districts with high-credit-scoring populations.

Now that election results are in, we see that Republican congressional districts with high median credit scores swung heavily toward Democratic control. To illustrate, let’s take a look at the 10 Republican districts that had the highest median VantageScore 3.0 credit scores before the midterms.

Nine of these Republican districts were rated as “swing” districts by the The Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index (or PVI). And postelection, we see all nine of these swing Republican districts ended up electing Democratic representatives, who will be sworn in early next year.

Table 1. 10 Republican districts with the highest median VantageScore 3.0 credit score

Bottom Line

Although Democrats did well this cycle in the above districts, it’s by no means true that Democrats represent only areas with higher-than-average credit. In fact, according to our postelection analysis, Democrats will continue to represent a disproportionate number of districts with lower-than-average credit. (All 15 of the lowest scoring districts are held by Democratic representatives.)

As for consumers, they can take heart. Postelection, both parties will serve districts that display a diversity of economic and credit situations. Each U.S. representative will continue to have a duty to devise policies that serve a large coalition of voters with wide ranging economic needs. You can make your voice heard by writing your representative or by attending town halls and other community events. And you can always work on improving your credit health, regardless of geography or political affiliation, by educating yourself about factors that influence your scores and following steps to build healthy credit habits.

Methodology

To conduct this analysis, Credit Karma took a look at the most recent TransUnion credit report for users who had logged onto Credit Karma in the five months leading up to October 19, 2018. We then used aggregated ZIP code data from these credit reports to match groups of users to specific congressional districts across the country. Once we had sorted these groups into their respective congressional districts, we used the remaining information in their TransUnion credit reports to calculate the average and median values for all the data points listed in the article, including their VantageScore 3.0 credit scores.

The “swing” status was determined by the district-by-district ratings assigned by The Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings. Districts considered “toss-ups” or “lean” districts were classified as “swing” in Credit Karma’s analysis; districts considered “likely” to vote for one party or the other were grouped with the “safe” districts. All percentages and figures have been rounded to the nearest whole.

After Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election by carrying several traditionally Democratic midwestern states, a common narrative emerged — Democrats had failed to engage one key segment of their base: white working-class voters facing economic distress.

That may be true, but in 2018, control of the U.S. House of Representatives will likely be decided not in the country’s most economically strapped areas, but instead by some of the most financially stable districts in the country, according to a new Credit Karma analysis.

Credit Karma looked at the median VantageScore 3.0 credit scores for every U.S. congressional district and found that, overall, “swing” districts — those most likely to switch party affiliation in an election — have higher scores and healthier finances than “safe” districts (that is, congressional districts at lower risk of swinging to the opposing political party).

What’s more, we saw that almost all the highest-credit-scoring Republican-held districts are categorized as swing districts — if voters in those areas decide to swing blue in the midterm elections, Republican members of the House stand to lose their most creditworthy and financially stable voting areas.

Swing districts are more creditworthy than others

We started by comparing the credit profiles of Credit Karma members who lived in “safe” Democratic, “safe” Republican and “swing” districts, as defined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings. (Learn more about our methodology.)

The analysis, conducted with TransUnion credit report data from the past five months, compared members by their median VantageScore 3.0 credit score and found that swing districts have higher credit scores and higher incomes than safe districts of either party.

Table 1. Average and Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score of Districts by Party Control

Republicans could lose almost all their most financially stable districts

We then cross-checked the list of swing districts against the list of all seats held by House Republicans — swing and safe, alike. Here, we found that of the top 10 Republican districts by median VantageScore 3.0 credit score, nine are at risk of swinging away from Republicans this cycle.

These nine districts have some common characteristics: All are located in wealthy suburbs of major cities in blue states, and most of them vote only slightly more strongly for Republicans on average than the nation as a whole, according to The Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index (PVI).

Table 2. 10 Republican districts with the highest median credit score

In fact, the swing districts currently held by Republicans collectively represent some of their most creditworthy. If Republicans were to lose all of them, the average and median VantageScore 3.0 credit scores across Republican-held districts would decrease by 4 points.

Table 3. Average and median VantageScore 3.0 credit score of districts by party control

Bottom line

On the brink of the 2018 midterm elections, Credit Karma’s analysis suggests the future makeup of the House rests not in the hands of those who are struggling economically, but instead with some of the most financially stable congressional districts in the country — regardless of political affiliation — despite the narrative that followed the 2016 election. What’s more, with a majority of the highest-scoring Republican-held districts falling into the “swing” category, House Republicans stand to lose their most financially stable districts in the coming days if those categories switch blue.  

Methodology

To conduct this analysis, Credit Karma took a look at the most recent TransUnion credit report for users who had logged onto Credit Karma in the 5 months leading up to October 19, 2018. We then used aggregated ZIP code data from these credit reports to match groups of users to specific congressional districts across the country. Once we had sorted these groups into their respective congressional districts, we used the remaining information in their TransUnion credit reports to calculate the average and median values for all the data points listed in the article, including their VantageScore 3.0 credit scores. 

The “swing” status was determined by the district-by-district ratings assigned by The Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings. Districts considered “toss-ups” or “lean” districts were classified as “swing” in Credit Karma’s analysis; districts considered “likely” to vote for one party or the other were grouped with the “safe” districts. All percentages and figures have been rounded to the nearest whole.

We used 2017 median income estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, which may not represent a true median for the users in our population.